DALCowboys
3-3
24
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
9 mph
30
SF49ers
3-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
0
14
24
49ers
3
3
21
3
30
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
469
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
4.9
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.14
Passing Yards
236
246
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.28
Rushing Yards
56
223
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.49
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-2.83
-2.33
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
30
73
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-10.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+40.9
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-34.3
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+15.8
Net QB Adjustment
+14.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-12.2
Market Regression
+14.9
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
2
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
25
30
EPA / Pass
29
14
EPA / Rush
30
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
31
31
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
31
Yards / Game
4
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
19
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
9
4th Down Efficiency
23
27
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U