DALCowboys
10-3
10
TBD
New Era Field
48°F
9 mph
31
BUFBills
7-6
TBD
New Era Field
48°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
3
0
7
10
Bills
7
14
3
7
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
195
351
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
3.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.28
Passing Yards
106
85
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
7/15(47%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.03
Rushing Yards
89
266
Rush Attempts
20
49
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.35
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
20
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.55
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-28
-9
Sack EPA
-6.50
-1.47
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-8.69
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+2.5
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,700
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+25.7
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
-5.6
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
4
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
32
Interceptions / Game
13
5
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
12
18
Bills Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
9
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
9
EPA / Pass
6
7
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
15
18
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U