DALCowboys
0-1
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
017
LACChargers
1-0
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
14
0
0
6
20
Chargers
3
8
3
3
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
410
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
7.0
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.03
Passing Yards
221
313
Comp/Att
23/27(85%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.09
Rushing Yards
198
97
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
60%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.75
-9.76
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-25
Sack EPA
-4.40
-3.87
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
76
99
Penalty EPA
-9.79
-12.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+25.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Chargers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
25
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U