DALCowboys
8-5
0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
7-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
0
0
0
0
Colts
7
3
10
3
23
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
370
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.12
Passing Yards
180
--
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.25
Rushing Yards
112
178
Rush Attempts
22
39
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.88
-4.89
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-5.47
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
74
55
Penalty EPA
-8.53
-2.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+67.7
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+20.3
Home QB Adjustment
+32.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+32.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
22
11
Passing Yards / Game
15
4
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
7
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
4
13
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
25
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Colts Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
7
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
16
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U