DALCowboys
1-0
31
TBD
FedExField
80°F
7 mph
21
WASCommanders
0-1
TBD
FedExField
80°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
14
7
10
31
Commanders
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
255
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
7.3
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.11
Passing Yards
261
208
Comp/Att
26/30(87%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.19
Rushing Yards
213
47
Rush Attempts
34
17
Yards / Rush
6.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
64%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.40
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-13
Sack EPA
-2.22
-1.71
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
67
44
Penalty EPA
-8.82
-5.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
Commanders+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+62.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
+2.8
Final Difference
-111.7
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
16
25
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U