DALCowboys
2-4
3
TBD
FedExField
46°F
5 mph
25
WASCommanders
1-5
TBD
FedExField
46°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
0
0
0
3
Commanders
7
13
0
3
23
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
142
397
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
2.6
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.14
Passing Yards
59
189
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.28
Rushing Yards
83
208
Rush Attempts
26
39
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.15
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-55
-5
Sack EPA
-8.48
-3.14
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
49
30
Penalty EPA
-7.56
-4.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
N/A
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,351
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+105.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.6
Away QB Adjustment
-112.3
Market Regression
+16.0
Final Difference
-16.7
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-112.3
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
5
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
28
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
21
EPA / Pass
29
18
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U