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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 7, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
2-4
3
TBD
FedExField
46°F
5 mph
25
WASCommanders
1-5
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
46°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
0
0
0
3
Commanders
7
13
0
3
23

Spread

WAS logo
0

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
142
397
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
2.6
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.14
Passing Yards
59
189
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.28
Rushing Yards
83
208
Rush Attempts
26
39
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.15
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-55
-5
Sack EPA
-8.48
-3.14
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
49
30
Penalty EPA
-7.56
-4.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
N/A
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,349
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+105.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.6
Away QB Adjustment
-112.3
Market Regression
+14.9
Final Difference
-17.8
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-112.3
Value
Ptile
10/06
3.6
76
10/13
-3.2
30
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-0.4
49
12/01
-1.6
43
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-7.2
11
12/22
3.9
78
12/29
-2.0
38
10/19
-5.3
14
K. Allen headshot

K. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
Value
Ptile
10/27
-15.5
0
11/03
-4.1
25
11/10
-0.5
49
11/17
-11.8
2
11/24
1.7
65
12/01
-3.0
31
12/08
-3.5
28
12/15
-3.8
26
10/11
-4.2
18
10/18
1.5
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15

EPA

EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
18
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
5
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
25
28
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31

EPA

EPA / Play
27
21
EPA / Pass
29
18
EPA / Rush
11
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
15
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/15
23
W
W
O
12/22
-8
L
L
U
12/29
31
W
W
O
09/13
-3
L
L
U
09/20
1
W
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
O
10/11
3
W
L
O
10/19
-28
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-5
L
W
U
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
-6
L
L
O
12/29
-31
L
L
O
09/13
10
W
W
O
09/20
-15
L
L
U
09/27
-14
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
W
O
10/11
-20
L
L
U
10/18
-1
L
W
U