DALCowboys
8-4
27
TBD
FedExField
48°F
17 mph
20
WASCommanders
6-6
TBD
FedExField
48°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
12
6
3
0
21
Commanders
0
0
8
6
14
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
226
Total Plays
79
64
Yards / Play
4.1
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.44
Passing Yards
201
124
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
15/35(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
3.5
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.94
Rushing Yards
124
102
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
39%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-10.62
-21.98
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-10
-51
Sack EPA
-4.90
-17.13
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
60
65
Penalty EPA
-6.94
-9.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
Commanders+6.5
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-42.7
Home QB Adjustment
-38.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-106.5
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-38.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
20
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U