DALCowboys
11-5
38
TBD
FedExField
48°F
13 mph
10
WASCommanders
4-12
TBD
FedExField
48°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
14
14
3
38
Commanders
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
440
180
Total Plays
69
49
Yards / Play
6.4
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.38
Passing Yards
--
130
Comp/Att
34/40(85%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.25
Rushing Yards
131
50
Rush Attempts
29
17
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
12
Passing 1st downs
23
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
60%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
71%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.22
-10.92
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-6.37
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
39
Penalty EPA
--
-3.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model83.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-252
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,643
Home Field
+33.1
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-22.9
Home QB Adjustment
-12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-284.0
Model Spread
+12.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U