DALCowboys
2-7
24
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
74°F
10 mph
14
MIADolphins
4-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
74°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
8
0
10
18
Dolphins
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
210
Total Plays
68
41
Yards / Play
5.7
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.26
Passing Yards
220
140
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.24
Rushing Yards
166
70
Rush Attempts
38
14
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
9
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.48
-5.34
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-48
Sack EPA
-2.22
-2.38
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
79
74
Penalty EPA
-1.06
-3.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+94.3
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-41.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+39.5
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+39.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
18
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
28
EPA
EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
31
31
EPA / Rush
5
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
32
17
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Dolphins Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
17
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U