DALCowboys
10-4
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
15 mph
22
MIADolphins
10-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
0
3
10
20
Dolphins
3
10
6
3
22
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
375
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.16
Passing Yards
242
284
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.20
Rushing Yards
97
91
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.74
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-5.36
-1.88
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
38
33
Penalty EPA
-3.93
-8.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,671
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.1
Market Regression
-13.5
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
22
Yards / Game
4
11
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Dolphins Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
3
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U