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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ eagles week 10, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
3-5
27
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
38°F
5 mph
20
PHIEagles
4-4
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
38°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
10
0
14
27
Eagles
0
3
10
7
20

Spread

DAL logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
410
421
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.00
Passing Yards
239
350
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
32/44(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.01
Rushing Yards
171
71
Rush Attempts
28
16
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
14
20
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.67
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-10
Sack EPA
-4.51
-2.15
Penalties
5
--
Penalty Yards
37
--
Penalty EPA
-3.33
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+58.9
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
+16.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+52.7
Home QB Adjustment
+50.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
+29.8
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
12/24
-7.4
10
12/31
0.1
53
09/09
-6.7
11
09/16
2.4
66
09/23
-8.1
8
09/30
0.9
52
10/07
-4.0
22
10/14
6.8
88
10/21
2.6
67
11/05
-2.5
31
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+50.2
Value
Ptile
11/19
-0.0
52
11/26
5.9
87
12/03
2.8
73
12/10
5.6
86
09/23
-3.5
25
09/30
3.5
72
10/07
4.2
75
10/11
7.3
91
10/21
4.2
76
10/28
3.2
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
7
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8

EPA

EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
22
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
7
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
16
RZ Efficiency
17
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
6
W
W
U
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
W
U
09/23
-11
L
L
U
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
-3
L
W
U
10/14
33
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
L
U
11/05
-14
L
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/21
31
W
W
O
02/04
8
W
W
O
09/06
6
W
W
U
09/16
-6
L
L
O
09/23
4
W
L
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
U
10/11
21
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
6
W
W
U