DALCowboys
3-5
27
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
38°F
5 mph
20
PHIEagles
4-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
38°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
10
0
14
27
Eagles
0
3
10
7
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
421
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.00
Passing Yards
239
350
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
32/44(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.01
Rushing Yards
171
71
Rush Attempts
28
16
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
14
20
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.67
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-10
Sack EPA
-4.51
-2.15
Penalties
5
--
Penalty Yards
37
--
Penalty EPA
-3.33
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+52.7
Home QB Adjustment
+50.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
+29.8
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+50.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
7
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8
EPA
EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
22
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
7
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
16
RZ Efficiency
17
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U