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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ eagles week 17, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
13-2
13
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
50°F
10 mph
27
PHIEagles
6-9
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
50°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
3
0
13
Eagles
3
7
7
10
27

Spread

PHI logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
195
346
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
3.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.00
Passing Yards
126
232
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.04
Rushing Yards
69
114
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.22
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-25
-13
Sack EPA
-5.33
-2.77
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
35
61
Penalty EPA
-4.78
-3.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.4%
Cover Probability
63.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-48
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-41.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.8
Away QB Adjustment
+32.9
Market Regression
+61.0
Final Difference
77.9
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+32.9
Value
Ptile
10/16
2.3
67
10/30
3.0
72
11/06
7.2
90
11/13
4.1
80
11/20
9.1
95
11/24
3.9
78
12/01
-0.7
43
12/11
-9.4
3
12/18
6.3
88
12/26
5.6
85
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Value
Ptile
10/23
-4.1
19
10/30
-0.5
45
11/06
-4.1
19
11/13
-1.4
37
11/20
-4.7
16
11/28
-0.9
42
12/04
-2.5
29
12/11
-1.3
39
12/18
-4.3
18
12/22
-0.9
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
5
11
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15

EPA

EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
4
5
EPA / Rush
2
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
19
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
21
17
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
11
RZ Efficiency
6
3
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1

EPA

EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
13
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
16
26
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
25
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
25
W
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
10
W
W
U
11/24
5
W
L
O
12/01
2
W
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
L
U
12/26
21
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
11
W
W
U
10/30
-6
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
L
O
11/13
9
W
W
U
11/20
-11
L
L
U
11/28
-14
L
L
U
12/04
-18
L
L
O
12/11
-5
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/22
5
W
W
O