DALCowboys
3-4
13
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
019
ATLFalcons
7-0
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
6
0
0
7
13
Falcons
0
6
0
13
19
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
453
Total Plays
54
63
Yards / Play
7.0
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.07
Passing Yards
312
330
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.36
Rushing Yards
65
123
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-12
Sack EPA
-2.45
-3.23
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
50
15
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-1.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
-36.2
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
24
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
22
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U