DALCowboys
8-7
14
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
7 mph
31
NYGGiants
8-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
0
7
7
14
Giants
7
14
0
10
31
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
437
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
5.1
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.13
Passing Yards
251
331
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.67
Rushing Yards
49
106
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.03
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-38
-15
Sack EPA
-10.33
-3.40
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
43
28
Penalty EPA
-6.92
-4.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
20
Yards / Game
10
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
22
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
9
20
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
15
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
26
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
14
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U