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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ giants week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
8-7
14
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
7 mph
31
NYGGiants
8-7
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
0
7
7
14
Giants
7
14
0
10
31

Spread

NYG logo
-3

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
300
437
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
5.1
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.13
Passing Yards
251
331
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.67
Rushing Yards
49
106
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.03
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-38
-15
Sack EPA
-10.33
-3.40
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
43
28
Penalty EPA
-6.92
-4.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
10/23
-0.4
49
10/30
-4.9
19
11/06
5.5
84
11/13
9.8
96
11/20
2.5
69
11/24
-0.4
49
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
6.4
87
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
-5.3
17
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
10/16
2.5
70
10/30
6.7
89
11/06
0.4
55
11/13
2.2
67
11/20
-2.8
33
11/28
7.9
93
12/04
5.3
82
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-8.0
6
12/24
-4.9
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Cowboys logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
15
20
Yards / Game
10
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18

EPA

EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
22
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
9
20
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Giants logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
7
15
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6

EPA

EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
26
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
14
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
9
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
27
W
W
U
10/30
-27
L
L
U
11/06
10
W
L
U
11/13
37
W
W
O
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/24
1
W
L
U
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/30
3
W
L
U
11/06
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/28
-25
L
L
O
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/24
15
W
W
U