DALCowboys
2-2
29
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
11 mph
31
BALRavens
4-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
3
10
9
29
Ravens
3
14
7
7
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
481
316
Total Plays
80
49
Yards / Play
6.0
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.40
Passing Yards
254
230
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.47
Rushing Yards
227
86
Rush Attempts
42
22
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
19
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
53%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.60
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-4
Sack EPA
-1.06
-1.63
Penalties
13
10
Penalty Yards
82
76
Penalty EPA
-11.29
-7.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
19
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Ravens Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
25
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
17
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
23
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U