DALCowboys
3-0
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
012
NOSaints
2-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
0
7
0
10
Saints
0
9
0
3
12
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
266
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
4.8
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.16
Passing Yards
212
149
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.26
Rushing Yards
45
117
Rush Attempts
20
27
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.05
-2.77
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-11
-44
Sack EPA
-0.90
-8.81
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
64
80
Penalty EPA
-5.55
-10.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+56.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-108.2
Home QB Adjustment
-81.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.7
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-81.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
3
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
4
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
16
24
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
4
10
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U