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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ saints week 4, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
3-0
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
12
NOSaints
2-1
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
0
7
0
10
Saints
0
9
0
3
12

Spread

NO logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
257
266
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
4.8
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.16
Passing Yards
212
149
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.26
Rushing Yards
45
117
Rush Attempts
20
27
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.05
-2.77
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-11
-44
Sack EPA
-0.90
-8.81
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
64
80
Penalty EPA
-5.55
-10.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-108.2
Home QB Adjustment
-81.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.7
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Value
Ptile
11/29
-1.4
36
12/09
7.0
90
12/16
-5.8
14
12/23
1.7
59
12/30
6.0
84
01/05
2.8
69
01/12
3.8
74
09/08
13.4
99
09/15
10.4
97
09/22
1.1
61
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-81.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
1.1
58
11/29
-2.8
30
12/06
-8.9
3
12/10
3.3
75
12/20
9.6
96
12/27
-4.8
16
01/03
-9.1
3
01/10
-3.8
23
12/30
-5.6
15
09/22
2.8
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Cowboys logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4

EPA

EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
3
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
4
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Saints logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10

EPA

EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
4
10
EPA / Rush
14
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
13
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/09
6
W
W
O
12/16
-23
L
L
U
12/23
7
W
P
U
12/30
1
W
W
O
01/05
2
W
L
O
01/12
-8
L
L
O
09/08
18
W
W
O
09/15
10
W
W
O
09/22
25
W
W
U
NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
L
U
12/23
3
W
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
O
01/13
6
W
L
U
01/20
-3
L
L
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
O