DALCowboys
7-4
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
017
NOSaints
5-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
6
7
1
21
Saints
0
7
3
7
17
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
405
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.35
Passing Yards
231
252
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/41(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.54
Rushing Yards
146
153
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
15%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.55
-21.34
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-12
Sack EPA
-1.95
-4.65
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
35
59
Penalty EPA
-4.34
-5.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-91
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+38.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-94.8
Home QB Adjustment
-85.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.7
Market Regression
+2.1
Final Difference
-124.8
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-85.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
2
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
5
1
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
20
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
17
25
RZ Efficiency
16
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U