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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ titans week 2, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
0-1
26
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
2 mph
10
TENTitans
1-0
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
13
7
3
26
Titans
0
0
10
0
10

Spread

DAL logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
368
314
Total Plays
76
49
Yards / Play
4.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.19
Passing Yards
148
232
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.29
Rushing Yards
220
82
Rush Attempts
43
13
Yards / Rush
5.1
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
26
13
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
56%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.73
-8.39
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-2
Sack EPA
-5.73
-1.69
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-4.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
10/20
-3.2
29
10/27
1.7
62
11/03
2.2
66
11/10
-5.6
16
11/24
-2.7
34
11/28
0.5
53
12/09
-0.5
46
12/15
-0.2
48
12/22
-1.0
44
09/07
-4.8
22
J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Value
Ptile
12/23
-11.3
2
12/30
-5.1
18
09/08
-3.5
28
09/15
-2.5
36
09/22
8.0
92
09/29
4.6
82
10/20
3.6
75
11/03
-6.2
13
11/10
-7.8
9
09/07
1.0
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Titans Defense
Cowboys logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
9
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31

EPA

EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
8
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
3
24
Titans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Titans logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
17
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
26
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-1
L
W
O
11/03
4
W
L
U
11/10
-32
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
O
12/09
-17
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
L
O
12/22
1
W
L
U
12/29
-2
L
W
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/10
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-3
L
L
O
11/24
4
W
W
P
12/01
-8
L
L
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-3
L
P
O
12/22
4
W
P
U
12/29
6
W
L
U
09/07
16
W
W
U