DALCowboys
2-7
31
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
028
MINVikings
4-5
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
6
10
0
15
31
Vikings
7
0
7
14
28
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
430
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.8
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.00
Passing Yards
196
305
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.09
Rushing Yards
182
125
Rush Attempts
32
29
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.28
-11.05
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-1.40
-7.11
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
30
80
Penalty EPA
-1.20
-7.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+1.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+108.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-108.9
Market Regression
-36.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-108.9
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27
EPA
EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
18
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
12
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
29
10
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
6
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U