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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ vikings week 11, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
2-7
31
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
28
MINVikings
4-5
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
6
10
0
15
31
Vikings
7
0
7
14
28

Spread

DAL logo
+7

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
378
430
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.8
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.00
Passing Yards
196
305
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.09
Rushing Yards
182
125
Rush Attempts
32
29
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.28
-11.05
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-1.40
-7.11
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
30
80
Penalty EPA
-1.20
-7.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+1.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+108.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-108.9
Market Regression
-36.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-108.9
Value
Ptile
10/13
-3.2
30
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-0.4
49
12/01
-1.6
43
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-7.2
11
12/22
3.9
78
12/29
-2.0
38
10/19
-5.3
14
10/25
-13.1
1
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
01/11
-6.9
12
09/13
4.4
75
09/20
-15.2
0
09/27
-1.2
36
10/04
-1.6
33
10/11
-1.6
32
10/18
-0.9
38
11/01
-0.6
41
11/08
1.5
54
11/16
3.6
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27

EPA

EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
18
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
12
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
29
10
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Vikings logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31

EPA

EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
8
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
6
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
31
W
W
O
09/13
-3
L
L
U
09/20
1
W
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
O
10/11
3
W
L
O
10/19
-28
L
L
U
10/25
-22
L
L
U
11/01
-14
L
L
U
11/08
-5
L
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
-17
L
L
U
09/13
-9
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-1
L
W
O
10/04
8
W
W
O
10/11
-1
L
W
U
10/18
-17
L
L
O
11/01
6
W
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U