DALCowboys
10-1
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
015
MINVikings
6-5
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
0
10
17
Vikings
3
0
3
9
15
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
318
Total Plays
49
70
Yards / Play
5.4
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.16
Passing Yards
124
231
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.35
-0.08
Rushing Yards
140
87
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-3.43
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-22
Sack EPA
-7.96
-3.27
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
78
--
Penalty EPA
-6.96
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+57.2
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+43.2
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+43.2
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
2
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
10
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
21
2
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
2
RZ Efficiency
6
13
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
32
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
23
RZ Efficiency
29
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U