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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ vikings week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
10-1
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
15
MINVikings
6-5
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
0
10
17
Vikings
3
0
3
9
15

Spread

MIN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
264
318
Total Plays
49
70
Yards / Play
5.4
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.16
Passing Yards
124
231
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.35
-0.08
Rushing Yards
140
87
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-3.43
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-22
Sack EPA
-7.96
-3.27
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
78
--
Penalty EPA
-6.96
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+43.2
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+43.2
Value
Ptile
09/18
1.1
57
09/25
8.1
93
10/02
2.4
68
10/09
3.9
77
10/16
2.3
67
10/30
3.0
72
11/06
7.2
90
11/13
4.1
80
11/20
9.1
95
11/24
3.9
78
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Value
Ptile
09/18
1.9
64
09/25
-1.1
40
10/03
3.4
75
10/09
4.7
82
10/23
-7.2
7
10/31
-4.3
18
11/06
2.6
69
11/13
3.1
74
11/20
-0.6
44
11/24
1.0
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19

EPA

EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
2
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
10
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
21
2
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
2
RZ Efficiency
6
13
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Vikings logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1

EPA

EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
32
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
23
RZ Efficiency
29
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
14
W
W
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
14
W
W
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
25
W
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
10
W
W
U
11/24
5
W
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/25
12
W
W
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
10/09
18
W
W
O
10/23
-11
L
L
U
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
-6
L
L
O
11/20
6
W
W
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U