MIADolphins
2-3
27
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
10 mph
14
CHIBears
3-3
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
7
6
27
Bears
0
0
7
7
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
224
Total Plays
69
51
Yards / Play
5.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.21
Passing Yards
256
172
Comp/Att
25/32(78%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.43
Rushing Yards
137
52
Rush Attempts
33
14
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-16.08
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-21
-18
Sack EPA
-6.48
-7.38
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
84
--
Penalty EPA
-8.31
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
31
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16
EPA
EPA / Play
13
29
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
15
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Bears Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
11
Rushing Yards / Game
27
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U