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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bears week 7, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIA logo
MIADolphins
2-3
27
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
10 mph
14
CHIBears
3-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
50°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
7
6
27
Bears
0
0
7
7
14

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
393
224
Total Plays
69
51
Yards / Play
5.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.21
Passing Yards
256
172
Comp/Att
25/32(78%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.43
Rushing Yards
137
52
Rush Attempts
33
14
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-16.08
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-21
-18
Sack EPA
-6.48
-7.38
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
84
--
Penalty EPA
-8.31
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
12/01
5.6
85
12/08
4.4
81
12/15
3.8
75
12/22
-12.5
1
12/29
-4.9
19
09/07
-2.3
34
09/14
-1.8
37
09/21
-5.5
17
09/28
5.9
85
10/12
3.2
72
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
11/10
-2.6
35
12/15
2.0
64
12/22
-5.4
18
12/29
0.3
52
09/07
4.3
78
09/14
6.9
89
09/22
-0.6
46
09/28
1.7
63
10/05
3.3
73
10/12
3.8
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bears Defense
Dolphins logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
31
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16

EPA

EPA / Play
13
29
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
15
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Bears Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bears logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
11
Rushing Yards / Game
27
23

EPA

EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
6
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
2
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
20
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
W
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-19
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
13
W
W
O
09/14
-19
L
L
U
09/21
-19
L
L
O
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
17
W
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
-43
L
L
O
12/29
-5
L
L
O
09/07
-3
L
L
U
09/14
8
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
-7
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U