MIADolphins
1-2
7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
2 mph
22
CINBengals
1-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
0
0
0
7
Bengals
10
6
3
3
22
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
222
362
Total Plays
43
69
Yards / Play
5.2
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.04
Passing Yards
160
285
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.29
Rushing Yards
62
77
Rush Attempts
13
37
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
19
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
18%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.23
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-29
-11
Sack EPA
-10.46
-2.55
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
68
40
Penalty EPA
-9.72
+1.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+184
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+77.2
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
7
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
18
14
EPA / Rush
19
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
14
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
19
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
31
EPA
EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U