MIADolphins
3-0
15
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
027
CINBengals
1-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
9
3
0
15
Bengals
7
7
0
13
27
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
371
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
6.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.12
Passing Yards
293
304
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.51
Rushing Yards
85
67
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
20%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.82
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-6
Sack EPA
-1.68
-2.19
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
41
74
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-8.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
7
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
10
5
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
18
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
23
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
7
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U