MIADolphins
1-6
11
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
9 mph
26
BUFBills
4-2
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
0
8
11
Bills
3
0
7
16
26
Spread
15
P
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
351
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.06
Passing Yards
196
--
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.12
Rushing Yards
68
102
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
29%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.81
--
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
58
80
Penalty EPA
-6.83
-10.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-15.0
Model
-15.0
Win Probability
Market88.4%
Model88.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+302
Home nfelo
1,654
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+48.3
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.4
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+34.5
Final Difference
352.8
Model Spread
-15.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
2
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U