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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 8, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-6
11
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
9 mph
26
BUFBills
4-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
0
8
11
Bills
3
0
7
16
26

Spread

MIA logo
BUF logo
15
P

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
264
351
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.06
Passing Yards
196
--
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.12
Rushing Yards
68
102
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
29%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.81
--
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
58
80
Penalty EPA
-6.83
-10.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-15.0
Model
-15.0

Win Probability

Market88.4%
Model88.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+306
Home nfelo
1,653
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+48.3
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.4
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+34.5
Final Difference
352.8
Model Spread
-15.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Value
Ptile
11/22
-6.8
8
12/06
2.8
65
12/13
1.4
54
12/20
0.7
50
12/26
-4.3
17
01/03
-0.4
43
09/12
-2.0
38
09/19
-7.9
8
10/17
4.8
83
10/24
5.6
86
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
01/03
2.1
59
01/09
9.2
95
01/16
-1.3
35
01/24
3.1
67
09/12
2.3
70
09/19
-1.5
42
09/26
13.9
99
10/03
2.1
69
10/10
9.6
96
10/18
4.9
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13

EPA

EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
1
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
2
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/26
1
W
L
O
01/03
-30
L
L
O
09/12
1
W
W
U
09/19
-35
L
L
U
09/26
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-10
L
L
O
10/10
-28
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-2
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
30
W
W
O
01/09
3
W
L
O
01/16
14
W
W
U
01/24
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
35
W
W
U
09/26
22
W
W
O
10/03
40
W
W
U
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
-3
L
L
O