MIADolphins
8-6
0
TBD
New Era Field
41°F
8 mph
19
BUFBills
5-9
TBD
New Era Field
41°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Bills
3
7
0
9
19
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
103
390
Total Plays
52
77
Yards / Play
2.0
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.02
Passing Yards
89
187
Comp/Att
12/33(36%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.00
Rushing Yards
14
203
Rush Attempts
12
51
Yards / Rush
1.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
18
Passing 1st downs
4
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
14%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
19
Red Zone %
NaN%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.66
-3.34
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-46
-6
Sack EPA
-11.48
-1.21
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
37
31
Penalty EPA
-5.57
-3.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
N/A
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model58.6%
Spread Pick
DolphinsN/A
Expected Value
+17.1%
Cover Probability
61.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-109
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-85.2
Home QB Adjustment
-63.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
-13.9
Final Difference
-60.1
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
T. Lewis
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-63.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
9
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
15
11
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
21
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U