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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
8-6
0
TBD
New Era Field
41°F
8 mph
19
BUFBills
5-9
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
41°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Bills
3
7
0
9
19

Spread

BUF logo
0

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
103
390
Total Plays
52
77
Yards / Play
2.0
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.02
Passing Yards
89
187
Comp/Att
12/33(36%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.00
Rushing Yards
14
203
Rush Attempts
12
51
Yards / Rush
1.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
6
18
Passing 1st downs
4
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
14%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
19
Red Zone %
NaN%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.66
-3.34
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-46
-6
Sack EPA
-11.48
-1.21
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
37
31
Penalty EPA
-5.57
-3.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
N/A
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model58.5%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
DolphinsN/A
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.1%
Cover Probability
61.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-85.2
Home QB Adjustment
-63.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-59.6
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
Value
Ptile
10/06
-3.2
29
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-8.0
8
10/31
1.0
56
11/11
-1.0
44
11/17
-2.7
34
11/24
3.4
73
12/01
5.6
85
12/08
4.4
81
12/15
3.8
75
T. Lewis headshot

T. Lewis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-63.8
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.0
42
10/13
1.1
57
10/20
-5.4
17
10/27
-4.5
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27

EPA

EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
28
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24

EPA

EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
9
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
15
11
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
21
RZ Efficiency
29
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-2
L
L
O
10/27
-10
L
L
U
10/31
2
W
W
P
11/11
-3
L
L
O
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/24
-4
L
W
U
12/01
20
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
W
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-13
L
L
O
10/13
-3
L
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/10
-13
L
L
U
11/17
23
W
W
O
12/01
-3
L
L
O
12/08
-21
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
W
O