nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 17, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
10-5
26
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
1 mph
56
BUFBills
12-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
7
13
26
Bills
0
22
1
21
44

Spread

BUF logo
+3

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
454
455
Total Plays
81
64
Yards / Play
5.6
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.23
Passing Yards
384
377
Comp/Att
36/60(60%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.44
Rushing Yards
70
78
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
27
24
Passing 1st downs
20
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.24
-7.82
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-2.17
-1.57
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
20
16
Penalty EPA
-2.75
-4.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model48.2%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+88.1
Home QB Adjustment
+49.0
Away QB Adjustment
-39.2
Market Regression
-112.4
Final Difference
12.9
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-39.2
Value
Ptile
11/01
-4.0
19
11/08
1.8
57
11/15
-0.8
39
11/22
-6.8
8
12/06
2.8
65
12/13
1.4
54
12/20
0.7
50
12/26
-4.3
17
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+49.0
Value
Ptile
10/19
-0.7
41
10/25
4.1
74
11/01
-1.6
32
11/08
6.2
85
11/15
2.1
59
11/29
-1.5
34
12/07
12.2
98
12/13
3.2
68
12/19
13.0
99
12/28
13.5
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20

EPA

EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
25
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16

EPA

EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
16
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
12
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
24
W
W
U
11/01
11
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/15
8
W
W
O
11/22
-7
L
L
U
11/29
17
W
W
U
12/06
12
W
W
U
12/13
-6
L
W
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/26
1
W
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-9
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
10
W
W
O
11/15
-2
L
W
O
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
O
12/13
11
W
W
U
12/19
29
W
W
O
12/28
29
W
W
P