MIADolphins
10-5
26
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
1 mph
56
BUFBills
12-3
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
7
13
26
Bills
0
22
1
21
44
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
454
455
Total Plays
81
64
Yards / Play
5.6
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.23
Passing Yards
384
377
Comp/Att
36/60(60%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.44
Rushing Yards
70
78
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
24
Passing 1st downs
20
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.24
-7.82
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-2.17
-1.57
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
20
16
Penalty EPA
-2.75
-4.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model48.4%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+88.1
Home QB Adjustment
+49.0
Away QB Adjustment
-39.2
Market Regression
-113.1
Final Difference
11.1
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-39.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+49.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16
EPA
EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U