MIADolphins
9-8
31
TBD
New Era Field
27°F
4 mph
34
BUFBills
13-3
TBD
New Era Field
27°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
17
1
7
25
Bills
14
6
14
0
34
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
423
Total Plays
70
72
Yards / Play
3.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.19
Passing Yards
191
316
Comp/Att
18/46(39%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.30
Rushing Yards
42
107
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.96
-18.61
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-31
-36
Sack EPA
-6.12
-15.93
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
34
13
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-1.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+320
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+134.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-139.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
S. Thompson
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-139.7
Value
Ptile
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
24
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U