MIADolphins
6-3
13
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
45°F
7 mph
20
DENBroncos
3-6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
45°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
0
3
13
Broncos
7
6
7
0
20
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
223
459
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
3.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.02
Passing Yards
167
--
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.05
Rushing Yards
56
189
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.96
-8.42
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-33
--
Sack EPA
-7.84
--
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
50
70
Penalty EPA
-5.72
-6.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+48.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-57.8
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-57.8
Value
Ptile
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
25
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
25
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
16
1
Broncos Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
24
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
26
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
23
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
27
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U