MIADolphins
1-5
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
17 mph
31
CLEBrowns
1-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
6
0
0
6
Browns
3
14
1
7
25
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
34.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
219
206
Total Plays
57
53
Yards / Play
3.8
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.56
-0.08
Passing Yards
120
102
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.86
+0.05
Rushing Yards
99
104
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
15
Passing 1st downs
7
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
8%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-20.93
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-33
-14
Sack EPA
-6.66
-3.03
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
103
37
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-6.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model49.9%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.6
Home QB Adjustment
-42.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-0.7
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
D. Gabriel
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-42.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
16
5
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
16
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
19
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U