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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ browns week 7, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-5
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
17 mph
31
CLEBrowns
1-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
6
0
0
6
Browns
3
14
1
7
25

Spread

CLE logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
34.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
219
206
Total Plays
57
53
Yards / Play
3.8
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.56
-0.08
Passing Yards
120
102
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.86
+0.05
Rushing Yards
99
104
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
12
15
Passing 1st downs
7
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
8%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-20.93
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-33
-14
Sack EPA
-6.66
-3.03
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
103
37
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-6.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.6
Home QB Adjustment
-42.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-0.3
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
11/28
6.3
86
12/08
9.2
95
12/15
-5.1
15
12/22
2.6
67
09/07
-9.1
3
09/14
1.0
58
09/18
-0.1
50
09/29
3.5
76
10/05
4.1
77
10/12
-6.0
13
D. Gabriel headshot

D. Gabriel

Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-42.7
Value
Ptile
10/05
0.1
53
10/12
-7.9
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Dolphins logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
22
14
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14

EPA

EPA / Play
18
3
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
11
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Browns logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
31
21
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24

EPA

EPA / Play
32
26
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
27
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
24
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
12
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
U
01/05
-12
L
L
O
09/07
-25
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/05
-3
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-14
L
L
U
12/22
-18
L
L
U
12/29
-17
L
L
U
01/04
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-1
L
W
U
09/14
-24
L
L
O
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-24
L
L
U
10/05
-4
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U