nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ browns week 7, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-5
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
17 mph
31
CLEBrowns
1-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
6
0
0
6
Browns
3
14
1
7
25

Spread

CLE logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
34.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
219
206
Total Plays
57
53
Yards / Play
3.8
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.56
-0.08
Passing Yards
120
102
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.86
+0.05
Rushing Yards
99
104
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
12
15
Passing 1st downs
7
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
8%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-20.93
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-33
-14
Sack EPA
-6.66
-3.03
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
103
37
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-6.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model49.9%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.6
Home QB Adjustment
-42.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-0.6
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
11/28
6.3
86
12/08
9.2
95
12/15
-5.1
15
12/22
2.7
67
09/07
-9.0
3
09/14
1.0
58
09/18
-0.0
51
09/29
3.6
76
10/05
4.1
78
10/12
-5.9
13
D. Gabriel headshot

D. Gabriel

Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-42.7
Value
Ptile
10/05
0.2
53
10/12
-7.9
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Dolphins logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16

EPA

EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
17
3
EPA / Rush
16
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
4
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Browns logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27

EPA

EPA / Play
32
26
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
23
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
16
Interceptions / Game
29
23
Fumbles / Game
12
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
25
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
12
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
U
01/05
-12
L
L
O
09/07
-25
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/05
-3
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-14
L
L
U
12/22
-18
L
L
U
12/29
-17
L
L
U
01/04
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-1
L
W
U
09/14
-24
L
L
O
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-24
L
L
U
10/05
-4
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U