MIADolphins
1-3
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
7 mph
45
TBBuccaneers
3-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
0
7
0
17
Buccaneers
7
17
0
21
45
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
558
Total Plays
51
71
Yards / Play
5.9
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.44
Passing Yards
262
437
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
33/44(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.73
Rushing Yards
39
121
Rush Attempts
9
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
33
Passing 1st downs
13
26
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.64
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-15
Sack EPA
-5.43
-2.90
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
37
47
Penalty EPA
-4.17
-5.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+224
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
29
3
EPA
EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
29
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
8
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
11
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
1
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U