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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ buccaneers week 5, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-3
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
7 mph
45
TBBuccaneers
3-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
0
7
0
17
Buccaneers
7
17
0
21
45

Spread

TB logo
-11

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
301
558
Total Plays
51
71
Yards / Play
5.9
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.44
Passing Yards
262
437
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
33/44(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.73
Rushing Yards
39
121
Rush Attempts
9
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
17
33
Passing 1st downs
13
26
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.64
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-15
Sack EPA
-5.43
-2.90
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
37
47
Penalty EPA
-4.17
-5.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+224
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
11/03
-4.9
20
11/17
-2.7
34
11/21
-2.5
35
12/01
-3.4
28
12/08
1.1
60
12/16
-4.3
24
12/22
-2.9
32
12/29
-6.5
14
09/26
1.1
61
10/03
-1.5
42
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Value
Ptile
12/26
7.4
91
01/03
4.6
77
01/09
2.1
59
01/17
2.3
62
01/24
-1.7
31
02/07
2.6
64
09/09
6.2
89
09/19
4.3
80
09/26
10.9
97
10/03
-1.7
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
29
3

EPA

EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
29
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
8
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Buccaneers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
11
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
1
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
17
W
W
U
12/06
12
W
W
U
12/13
-6
L
W
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/26
1
W
L
O
01/03
-30
L
L
O
09/12
1
W
W
U
09/19
-35
L
L
U
09/26
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-10
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
40
W
W
U
01/03
17
W
W
O
01/09
8
W
L
O
01/17
10
W
W
U
01/24
5
W
W
O
02/07
22
W
W
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/19
23
W
W
O
09/26
-10
L
L
O
10/03
2
W
L
U