MIADolphins
11-6
7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
-4°F
19 mph
26
KCChiefs
11-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
-4°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
0
0
7
Chiefs
7
9
3
7
26
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
409
Total Plays
59
75
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.09
Passing Yards
188
--
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.20
Rushing Yards
76
147
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
8%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.12
-3.10
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.40
--
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
62
--
Penalty EPA
-7.64
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,609
Home Field
+54.3
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-24.1
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
31
Interceptions / Game
24
27
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
13
13
EPA / Rush
16
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
29
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U