MIADolphins
-
8
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
033
INDColts
-
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
8
8
Colts
3
17
3
10
33
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
418
Total Plays
47
70
Yards / Play
4.5
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.31
Passing Yards
135
262
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.45
Rushing Yards
78
156
Rush Attempts
12
40
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.34
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
27
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.45
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-8.71
-1.72
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
45
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-0.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
6.5
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
16
12
EPA / Rush
8
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
22
10
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
24
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U