MIADolphins
5-5
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
5-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
3
7
24
Colts
7
7
0
13
27
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
455
Total Plays
51
65
Yards / Play
6.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.02
Passing Yards
201
337
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
31/38(82%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.21
Rushing Yards
113
118
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.09
-10.14
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-10
Sack EPA
-1.79
-2.11
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
75
52
Penalty EPA
-9.93
-5.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+9.0
Expected Value
+2.2%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+33.1
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.3
Home QB Adjustment
+41.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
-4.5
Final Difference
202.0
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+41.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
8
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
8
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
27
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
18
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
7
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U