nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ colts week 12, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-5
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
5-5
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
3
7
24
Colts
7
7
0
13
27

Spread

MIA logo
+9

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
314
455
Total Plays
51
65
Yards / Play
6.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.02
Passing Yards
201
337
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
31/38(82%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.21
Rushing Yards
113
118
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.09
-10.14
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-10
Sack EPA
-1.79
-2.11
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
75
52
Penalty EPA
-9.93
-5.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model76.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+33.1
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.3
Home QB Adjustment
+41.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
-5.0
Final Difference
202.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
11/13
3.9
78
11/20
-2.0
34
11/27
5.6
85
12/04
-4.3
18
12/11
3.1
73
09/09
-0.8
41
09/16
0.9
52
09/23
7.7
92
09/30
-8.7
7
10/07
-7.1
10
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+41.5
Value
Ptile
09/09
5.3
82
09/16
-1.6
36
09/23
0.3
49
09/30
9.1
94
10/04
4.4
77
10/14
0.9
53
10/21
6.1
85
10/28
4.9
78
11/11
5.3
81
11/18
8.9
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Dolphins logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
26
8
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9

EPA

EPA / Play
28
8
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
27
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Colts logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31

EPA

EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
18
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
7
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
7
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
U
09/23
8
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/07
-10
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/21
-11
L
L
O
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/11
-19
L
L
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-11
L
L
O
09/16
12
W
W
U
09/23
-4
L
W
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
O
10/14
-8
L
L
O
10/21
32
W
W
U
10/28
14
W
W
O
11/11
3
W
P
O
11/18
28
W
W
U