MIADolphins
8-3
45
TBD
FedExField
53°F
2 mph
15
WASCommanders
4-8
TBD
FedExField
53°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
11
14
7
7
39
Commanders
0
7
8
0
15
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
247
Total Plays
59
55
Yards / Play
6.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.44
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
109
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
12/24(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.74
-0.54
Rushing Yards
123
138
Rush Attempts
34
28
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
11
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.33
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-5.05
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-1.77
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-157
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,640
Home Field
+45.1
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
-27.6
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
20
13
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
29
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
24
11
Passing Yards / Game
6
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
6
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U