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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ commanders week 13, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
8-3
45
TBD
FedExField
53°F
2 mph
15
WASCommanders
4-8
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
53°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
11
14
7
7
39
Commanders
0
7
8
0
15

Spread

MIA logo
-8.5

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
406
247
Total Plays
59
55
Yards / Play
6.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.44
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
109
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
12/24(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.74
-0.54
Rushing Yards
123
138
Rush Attempts
34
28
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
20
11
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.33
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-5.05
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-1.77
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-158
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,640
Home Field
+45.0
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
-27.8
Final Difference
-202.4
Model Spread
+8.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Value
Ptile
09/17
0.9
55
09/24
11.6
98
10/01
0.4
52
10/08
1.9
63
10/15
6.7
89
10/22
-1.4
39
10/29
5.7
85
11/05
-1.8
37
11/19
4.2
77
11/24
-1.7
39
S. Howell headshot

S. Howell

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Value
Ptile
09/24
-15.6
0
10/01
2.4
66
10/05
2.7
68
10/15
-4.4
22
10/22
-8.1
8
10/29
12.0
99
11/05
1.9
63
11/12
5.6
84
11/19
-1.9
35
11/23
0.6
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Dolphins logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
9
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
20
13
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
29
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
24
11
Passing Yards / Game
6
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7

EPA

EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
10
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
6
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/24
50
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
15
W
W
U
10/15
21
W
W
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
-7
L
L
U
11/19
7
W
L
U
11/24
21
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-34
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/05
-20
L
L
O
10/15
8
W
W
U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
P
O
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
W
O
11/19
-12
L
L
O
11/23
-35
L
L
O