MIADolphins
3-5
20
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
59°F
13 mph
19
PHIEagles
4-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
59°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
10
0
7
20
Eagles
14
0
0
3
17
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
436
Total Plays
66
87
Yards / Play
4.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.08
Passing Yards
190
353
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.01
Rushing Yards
99
83
Rush Attempts
26
35
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
33%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.23
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-39
Sack EPA
-4.78
-6.41
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
84
54
Penalty EPA
-5.84
-5.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
17
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
27
RZ Efficiency
19
31
Eagles Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
12
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
16
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
30
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
22
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U