MIADolphins
1-0
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
87°F
5 mph
23
JAXJaguars
0-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
87°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
10
7
0
20
Jaguars
10
10
0
3
23
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
396
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.05
Passing Yards
344
--
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.22
Rushing Yards
42
123
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
--
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.45
--
Penalties
13
9
Penalty Yards
112
93
Penalty EPA
-11.17
-10.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-137.9
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
17
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
19
25
Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
30
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
15
31
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U