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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ jets week 12, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
6-4
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
2 mph
3
NYJJets
0-10
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
10
0
7
20
Jets
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

MIA logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
345
260
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.46
Passing Yards
241
173
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.44
Rushing Yards
104
87
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.56
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
22
10
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.35
-8.10
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-16
-24
Sack EPA
-6.05
-5.31
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-7.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model78.9%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.8%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-265
Home nfelo
1,295
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+32.7
Market Regression
-11.5
Final Difference
-229.5
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+32.7
Value
Ptile
12/08
-1.4
44
12/15
0.6
56
12/22
5.3
84
12/29
8.1
93
09/13
-4.9
16
09/20
5.2
78
09/24
6.2
84
10/04
1.7
56
10/11
8.6
93
10/18
-2.6
26
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Value
Ptile
12/08
-2.0
38
12/12
1.1
61
12/22
-0.5
49
12/29
-2.8
33
09/13
-2.8
25
09/20
-0.3
44
09/27
-7.5
7
10/01
-0.3
44
10/25
-15.0
0
11/01
-2.4
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12

EPA

EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
17
29
EPA / Rush
25
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
16
14
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
28
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
32
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-10
L
L
U
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/24
18
W
W
U
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/11
26
W
W
O
10/18
24
W
W
U
11/01
11
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/15
8
W
W
O
11/22
-7
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-10
L
L
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
-29
L
L
U
10/01
-9
L
L
O
10/11
-20
L
L
U
10/18
-24
L
L
U
10/25
-8
L
W
U
11/01
-26
L
L
U
11/09
-3
L
W
O
11/22
-6
L
W
O