MIADolphins
6-4
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
2 mph
3
NYJJets
0-10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
10
0
7
20
Jets
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
260
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.46
Passing Yards
241
173
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.44
Rushing Yards
104
87
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.56
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
10
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.35
-8.10
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-16
-24
Sack EPA
-6.05
-5.31
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-7.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-7.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-263
Home nfelo
1,299
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+32.7
Market Regression
-8.7
Final Difference
-224.7
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+32.7
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
17
29
EPA / Rush
25
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
16
14
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U