nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ jets week 12, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
7-3
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
11 mph
13
NYJJets
4-6
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
8
3
14
28
Jets
0
0
0
7
7

Spread

MIA logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
395
159
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
5.7
2.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.36
Passing Yards
228
130
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.49
Rushing Yards
167
29
Rush Attempts
37
10
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
69%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
11
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.98
-11.63
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-15
-49
Sack EPA
-3.47
-11.45
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
38
60
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-4.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+19.3%
Cover Probability
62.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-123
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+39.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-71.9
Home QB Adjustment
-49.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
-25.7
Final Difference
-171.2
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Value
Ptile
09/10
9.4
97
09/17
0.9
55
09/24
11.6
98
10/01
0.4
52
10/08
1.9
63
10/15
6.7
89
10/22
-1.4
39
10/29
5.7
85
11/05
-1.8
37
11/19
4.2
77
T. Boyle headshot

T. Boyle

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-49.1
Value
Ptile
11/21
-8.4
7
12/26
-3.0
32
01/02
-2.1
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25

EPA

EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
9
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
20
13
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7

EPA

EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
32
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
32
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
2
W
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/24
50
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
15
W
W
U
10/15
21
W
W
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
-7
L
L
U
11/19
7
W
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/17
-20
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/08
10
W
W
O
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/29
3
W
P
U
11/06
-21
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/19
-26
L
L
U