MIADolphins
7-3
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
11 mph
13
NYJJets
4-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
8
3
14
28
Jets
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
159
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
5.7
2.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.36
Passing Yards
228
130
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.49
Rushing Yards
167
29
Rush Attempts
37
10
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
69%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
11
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.98
-11.63
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-15
-49
Sack EPA
-3.47
-11.45
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
38
60
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-4.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model72.7%
Spread Pick
Jets+9.5
Expected Value
+19.3%
Cover Probability
62.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-71.7
Home QB Adjustment
-49.0
Away QB Adjustment
+22.6
Market Regression
-24.8
Final Difference
-170.4
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
T. Boyle
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-49.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
9
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
20
13
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
32
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U