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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ jets week 14, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-7
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
6 mph
10
NYJJets
3-9
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
21
3
0
10
34
Jets
1
0
0
3
4

Spread

MIA logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
358
207
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
5.7
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.38
Passing Yards
119
142
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
15/34(44%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.71
Rushing Yards
239
65
Rush Attempts
41
17
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
14
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
20%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
2
1
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-12.28
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-1.91
-9.40
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
54
50
Penalty EPA
-6.23
-4.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,390
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+39.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
-19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-32.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-9.9
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-32.5
Value
Ptile
09/18
-0.1
50
09/29
3.5
76
10/05
4.1
77
10/12
-6.0
13
10/19
-11.0
1
10/26
5.9
89
10/30
-3.3
27
11/09
-1.0
42
11/16
-5.0
16
11/30
-9.4
3
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
Value
Ptile
11/28
-5.9
15
12/05
-10.5
3
10/15
-0.2
47
10/22
1.4
59
10/29
-6.0
14
12/31
-0.7
45
01/07
3.8
75
09/21
-0.8
44
11/23
-3.3
28
11/30
1.4
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
22
30
Yards / Game
25
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
10
27

EPA

EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
17
31
EPA / Rush
11
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
15
24
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
26
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
24
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
19
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
31
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-10
L
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/05
-3
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
10/26
24
W
W
U
10/30
-22
L
L
U
11/09
17
W
W
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/05
-15
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
-7
L
L
U
10/26
1
W
W
O
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/23
-13
L
W
U
11/30
3
W
W
O