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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ lions week 8, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
4-3
31
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
27
DETLions
1-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
10
14
0
31
Lions
14
13
0
0
27

Spread

MIA logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
52

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
476
393
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
7.4
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.20
Passing Yards
369
311
Comp/Att
29/36(81%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.23
Rushing Yards
107
82
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
67%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.98
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-2.81
-2.31
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-4.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
Value
Ptile
12/05
2.8
74
12/19
-4.7
21
12/27
-2.7
33
01/02
-10.3
4
01/09
1.9
66
09/11
1.0
59
09/18
12.7
99
09/25
1.9
68
09/29
-6.4
12
10/23
2.8
75
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Value
Ptile
12/05
0.5
56
12/12
-2.2
36
12/19
4.4
81
01/09
3.4
78
09/11
-1.4
43
09/18
1.9
67
09/25
0.9
58
10/02
7.8
92
10/09
-4.8
19
10/23
-4.8
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense
Dolphins logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
27
29

EPA

EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
20
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
10
26
Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Lions logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4

EPA

EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
25
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
4
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
17
W
W
U
01/02
-31
L
L
U
01/09
9
W
W
O
09/11
13
W
W
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
2
W
W
U
09/29
-12
L
L
U
10/09
-23
L
L
O
10/16
-8
L
L
U
10/23
6
W
L
U
DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/26
-4
L
W
U
01/02
-22
L
L
O
01/09
7
W
W
O
09/11
-3
L
W
O
09/18
9
W
W
O
09/25
-4
L
W
P
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
-29
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U