MIADolphins
4-3
31
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
027
DETLions
1-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
10
14
0
31
Lions
14
13
0
0
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
476
393
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
7.4
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.20
Passing Yards
369
311
Comp/Att
29/36(81%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.23
Rushing Yards
107
82
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
67%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.98
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-2.81
-2.31
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
27
29
EPA
EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
10
26
Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
25
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
4
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U