MIADolphins
0-1
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
79°F
10 mph
31
NEPatriots
1-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
79°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
7
14
24
Patriots
14
10
7
0
31
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
457
463
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
7.5
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
302
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.37
Rushing Yards
70
161
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
29
Passing 1st downs
19
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-16.63
-3.32
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-3.18
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
49
65
Penalty EPA
-6.19
-5.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model73.6%
Spread Pick
Patriots-6.0
Expected Value
+10.4%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+218
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.5
Home QB Adjustment
-26.1
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
+1.2
Final Difference
178.2
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-26.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
6
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
19
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
7
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
2
12
EPA / Rush
16
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
14
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U