MIADolphins
1-1
28
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
031
OAKRaiders
2-0
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Dolphins
8
0
0
11
3
22
Raiders
0
10
7
6
6
29
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
497
Total Plays
79
81
Yards / Play
4.2
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.03
Passing Yards
199
357
Comp/Att
32/50(64%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.15
Rushing Yards
133
140
Rush Attempts
27
35
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
33%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.73
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-29
Sack EPA
-3.40
-5.76
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
68
104
Penalty EPA
-10.59
-13.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
26
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
29
15
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
14
32
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
15
32
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
8
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
15
8
EPA / Rush
28
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
29
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U