MIADolphins
7-7
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
03
NOSaints
7-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
4
0
7
3
14
Saints
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
164
Total Plays
59
51
Yards / Play
4.4
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.69
Passing Yards
173
81
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
12/20(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-1.49
Rushing Yards
86
83
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
10
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.14
-9.22
Sacks
3
8
Sack Yards
-25
-54
Sack EPA
-5.57
-16.73
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
65
62
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-8.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
Saints+3.5
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+55.7
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-108.1
Home QB Adjustment
-94.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
-89.6
Final Difference
-24.2
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
I. Book
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-94.6
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Saints Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
27
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
16
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U