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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ texans week 1, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
-
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
30
HOUTexans
-
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
0
1
0
4
Texans
0
24
3
3
30

Spread

HOU logo
-13

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
275
337
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
4.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.07
Passing Yards
199
254
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.38
Rushing Yards
76
83
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
20%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.29
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-20
-12
Sack EPA
-4.03
-2.43
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
78
35
Penalty EPA
-14.05
-3.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model82.2%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+13.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.3%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+80.7
Final Difference
266.1
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
No recent game data available
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
09/11
-2.5
33
09/18
1.9
66
09/25
4.4
78
10/02
1.2
61
10/09
-1.5
40
10/16
-1.3
42
10/23
7.1
91
10/30
1.2
61
11/06
-1.5
40
11/13
3.6
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Dolphins logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6

EPA

EPA / Play
22
6
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
28
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Texans logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
12

EPA

EPA / Play
11
14
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
14
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
14
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
-3
L
W
U
11/06
28
W
W
U
11/13
11
W
W
U
11/20
27
W
W
U
11/24
-1
L
W
U
12/04
20
W
W
O
12/11
-16
L
L
U
12/18
7
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
W
O
01/01
2
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
18
W
W
U
11/13
28
W
W
O
11/27
7
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/18
-15
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-1
L
P
O
01/07
21
W
W
O
01/15
-7
L
W
U