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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ texans week 8, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
4-3
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
42
HOUTexans
4-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
10
3
23
Texans
7
7
14
14
42

Spread

HOU logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
370
427
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
5.7
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.31
Passing Yards
254
--
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
16/20(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.77
Rushing Yards
116
188
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.92
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.45
--
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
63
57
Penalty EPA
-4.76
-5.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+89.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+55.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-46.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-46.7
Value
Ptile
12/11
-7.3
7
12/18
-9.3
3
01/07
1.6
60
01/14
-7.0
8
11/05
-7.9
8
11/12
-2.5
35
11/19
-2.0
39
12/24
-5.4
18
10/14
6.6
87
10/21
0.5
50
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Value
Ptile
10/08
6.5
89
10/15
1.2
61
10/29
5.2
85
09/09
-4.7
19
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
7.0
89
10/14
-11.1
2
10/21
-2.7
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Dolphins logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4

EPA

EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
27
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
21
RZ Efficiency
27
31
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Texans logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
15
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31

EPA

EPA / Play
15
23
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
21
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
4
Interceptions / Game
6
2
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
28
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
09/09
7
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
U
09/23
8
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/07
-10
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/21
-11
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-38
L
L
O
12/25
-28
L
L
U
12/31
-9
L
L
U
09/09
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
-5
L
L
O
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
7
W
L
U
10/21
13
W
W
U