MIADolphins
4-3
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
042
HOUTexans
4-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
10
3
23
Texans
7
7
14
14
42
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
427
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
5.7
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.31
Passing Yards
254
--
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
16/20(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.77
Rushing Yards
116
188
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.92
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.45
--
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
63
57
Penalty EPA
-4.76
-5.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+55.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-46.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-46.7
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
27
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
21
RZ Efficiency
27
31
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
15
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
15
23
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
4
Interceptions / Game
6
2
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U