PHIEagles
4-2
37
TBD
Paycor Stadium
59°F
6 mph
17
CINBengals
3-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
59°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
10
14
13
37
Bengals
7
3
7
0
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
280
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
6.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.40
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
222
Comp/Att
16/20(80%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.72
+0.07
Rushing Yards
161
58
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
55%
77%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.33
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-1.50
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+59.3
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
8
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Bengals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
9
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
12
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U