PHIEagles
9-8
15
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
21 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
13-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
0
15
15
Buccaneers
14
3
14
0
31
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
349
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
5.4
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.15
Passing Yards
246
243
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
29/37(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.22
Rushing Yards
95
106
Rush Attempts
17
31
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.84
+5.09
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-28
Sack EPA
-2.23
-4.21
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-3.27
-0.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model76.3%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+231
Home nfelo
1,684
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+36.2
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
202.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
14
4
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
8
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
6
23
EPA / Rush
11
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
26
Interceptions / Game
9
21
Fumbles / Game
19
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U