PHIEagles
11-6
9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
65°F
2 mph
32
TBBuccaneers
9-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
65°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
9
0
0
9
Buccaneers
10
6
7
7
30
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
426
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
5.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.22
Passing Yards
234
307
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.32
Rushing Yards
42
119
Rush Attempts
16
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
0%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-16
-30
Sack EPA
-3.58
-8.86
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
54
25
Penalty EPA
-6.20
-3.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+46.1
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
5
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
20
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
13
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U