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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ cardinals week 15, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
4-8
26
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
33
ARICardinals
7-6
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
20
6
0
26
Cardinals
14
10
0
7
31

Spread

ARI logo
-6

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
422
526
Total Plays
81
68
Yards / Play
5.2
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.00
Passing Yards
305
423
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
11.4
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.18
Rushing Yards
117
103
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
18
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
33%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-16.66
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-33
-9
Sack EPA
-7.73
-5.77
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
69
83
Penalty EPA
-8.73
-9.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model64.6%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+40.7
Home QB Adjustment
+26.6
Away QB Adjustment
-14.1
Market Regression
-0.8
Final Difference
104.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.1
Value
Ptile
12/13
6.2
85
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
Value
Ptile
10/04
8.1
93
10/11
7.2
89
10/19
3.6
70
10/25
12.2
98
11/08
15.6
100
11/15
5.4
80
11/19
1.0
51
11/29
-2.9
24
12/06
-1.0
38
12/13
3.7
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
12
Yards / Game
25
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
21

EPA

EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
14
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
26
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Cardinals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22

EPA

EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
22
15
EPA / Rush
3
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
23
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
3
RZ Efficiency
9
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
5
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/18
-2
L
W
O
10/22
1
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/15
-10
L
L
U
11/22
-5
L
L
U
11/30
-6
L
W
U
12/06
-14
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-10
L
L
U
10/11
20
W
W
U
10/19
28
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
W
O
11/08
-3
L
L
O
11/15
2
W
L
O
11/19
-7
L
L
U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
O
12/13
19
W
W
U