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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ chiefs week 2, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-0
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
88°F
12 mph
17
KCChiefs
0-1
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
88°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
3
3
7
20
Chiefs
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

PHI logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
216
294
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
3.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
94
173
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.25
Rushing Yards
122
121
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
4
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.05
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-2.21
-3.62
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
48
45
Penalty EPA
-5.37
-5.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
11/24
0.8
53
12/01
-0.5
46
12/08
1.9
62
12/15
8.5
94
12/22
-4.4
21
01/12
-0.4
46
01/19
-2.4
32
01/26
7.5
92
02/09
6.3
85
09/04
6.5
90
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
11/24
5.8
83
11/29
-3.7
24
12/08
-0.3
47
12/15
1.5
59
12/21
8.0
93
12/25
11.3
98
01/18
0.2
50
01/26
7.0
90
02/09
-2.5
32
09/05
5.7
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Eagles logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
24
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9

EPA

EPA / Play
20
21
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
17
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
1
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
21

EPA

EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
5
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
22
15
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
12
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
6
W
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
7
W
W
U
01/12
12
W
W
U
01/19
6
W
L
O
01/26
32
W
W
O
02/09
18
W
W
O
09/04
4
W
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
2
W
L
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/25
19
W
W
U
01/05
-38
L
L
U
01/18
9
W
L
U
01/26
3
W
W
O
02/09
-18
L
L
O
09/05
-6
L
L
O