PHIEagles
1-0
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
88°F
12 mph
17
KCChiefs
0-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
88°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
3
3
7
20
Chiefs
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
294
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
3.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
94
173
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.25
Rushing Yards
122
121
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
4
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.05
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-2.21
-3.62
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
48
45
Penalty EPA
-5.37
-5.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
8
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21
EPA
EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U